2.0 SCIENTIFIC APPROACH TO GEOGRAPHIC RESEARCH:
2.1 STAGES THROUGH WHICH GEOGRAPHICAL APPROACHES AND METHODS DEVELOPED
2.1.1 EXPLORATION PARADIGM
This
was dominated by Ancient Greeks especially Plato who used the deductive method
and Aristotle who used the inductive method. Their main concern was to answer
the question what is where? They gave descriptions of places and different
phenomena. They did not answer the questions: Why are the phenomena where they
are located? And why do they behave that way?
2.1.2 ENVIRONMENTAL DETERMINISM PARADIGM
Why
are the phenomena located where they are? They believed that the environment
dictates the kind of activities to be done at a certain place.
This
paradigm developed much in Europe.
It
failed to answer the question; what is the influence of man in the environment.
The
environment provides different options or alternatives to which you can put it;
human beings make decision on what alternatives to take.
The environment does not dictate decision
making.
It
failed to realise the interrelations between human beings and the environment
2.1.3 REGIONALISM (ARERIAL DIFFERENTIATION)
They
believed that the phenomena behave as they are behaving due to regional
differences.
Climate,
soils and vegetation were taken as some of the criteria to define the region.
This
paradigm divided the world into natural regions which are unique.
This
uniqueness was rejected by some geographers: they claimed that it was difficult
to demarcate regions which are permanently unique; it did not come with a clear
testable way of assessing human impacts on the environment.
Regionalism
changed into spatial analysis of geographic phenomena.
2.1.4 QUANTITATIVE REVOLUTION
It
started in the US. It is an attempt to make Geography systematic science which
can make laws and theories. It aimed at making geography scientific by using
scientific methods.
In
previous paradigms there were no laws and theories. The approaches were
descriptive
The
scientific approach uses the philosophy of mathematics and statistics to arrive
at conclusions
2.1.5 ORIGINS AND NATURE OF QUANTITATIVE REVOLUTION
Regionalism
in its various forms was the dominant geographical paradigm used in teaching
and research in geography after replacing the environmental determinism and
possibilism paradigm in 1930s and 1940s. However many geographers blamed it for
the low self esteem of the discipline in the 1950s and argued that it did not
afford the necessary balance between regional and systematic studies. They also
argued that uniqueness of places that regionalism emphasized tended to ignore
the search for generalization that would offer better explanations and allow
for wider application and insight into geographical phenomenon. They believed
that their approach and adoption of quantification by the wider geographical
community would make geography to be more respected and recognised academically
as capable of contributing worthy knowledge to solve the many problems that the
society was facing in the 1960s as opposed to its then status that they
considered to be intellectually weak, being held in low esteem by other discipline
and being descriptive and lacking in theory.
The main difference with the regional school was the greater faith
geographers had in their ability to produce laws and work within the accepted
scientific methods that were increasingly defining social science research.
2.2 THE CHARACTERISTICS OF GEOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
- Any research is the logical process, i.e. appears logically. It possesses the following characteristics:
- The research begins with the question in the mind of the researcher. This question should be intelligently asked in the presence of the phenomena that the researcher has observed and which disturbs him. The question may involve unresolved and confusing situation around you.
- Research requires a plan: It is not aimless, undirected activity. It requires a definite plan direction and design. To ensure a good plan there should be:
- A clear statement of the problem
- Development of hypothesis
- Data gathering and interpreting design
- Test of hypothesis and an arrival at factually based conclusion
- A research requires a clear statement of the problem: Here unanswered questions that the researcher finds indigenous to the research situation must be put clear at the very beginning of the research. Before we begin we need to understand the problem. We look at it objectively.
- Any research deals with the main problem through sub problems. Most researchable problems have within them other problem areas of lesser breadth and importance
- Research seeks direction through appropriate hypothesis or research questions, having set the research problem and the sub problems. The sub problems are then viewed through logical constructs. “ A hypothesis is a logical supposition, a reasonable guess, an educated assumption which may give direction to thinking with respect to the problem and thus aid in solving it.
- Research deals with facts and meanings: Having isolated the problem, subdivided it into appropriate sub problems, and formulated hypothesis or research questions which will suggest the direction in which the facts may lie, the next step is to collect whatever facts which may seem to be pertinent to the problem and to organize them into meaningful aggregates capable of being interpreted
- Research is circular
2.3 TENETS/PILLARS OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
Science
is an objective activity undertaken within very strict rules, and it involves
the continuous excitement of search for new discoveries under a certain set of
values universally subscribed to within academics.
The
main tenets of academic research
- Originality: Original work intends to discover new knowledge, addition of knowledge on existing knowledge, comparing of things and it is not duplicate.
- Communality: Sharing of information with the public is expected after work. It can be done I publication, seminar, workshop or forum.
- Disinterestedness: Objectivity not being guided by your opinions; use of scientific procedures
- Universalism: if a research is done in one area it should bring the same results on other areas with similar characteristics
- Constructive criticism be ready to receive constructive criticism.
2.4 Steps in Scientific geography
- Problem identification: A problem is anything that requires some explanation. A problem must be clearly defined. A problem can cover anything, e.g. population growth and plan, population movement, Dynamics of human settlements, Urbanization process, economic growth, etc.
- Gathering available information or data: You need to read widely what has been written about that particular problem. Relevant information that is available must be collected. This data is available in statistical publications, books, journals, News media, census reports, Historical documents, research documents, etc
- Primary data or original data collection: Secondary data may not suffice the problem. The research has to collect original data. This is the data one collects from the field. A research advantageously collects from the field data that is relevant to the problem using different data collection techniques.
- Classification or summarization of data: Data or facts that are collected must be organized or grouped to suit the study. The process is known as data classification. Items with similar characteristics are arranged in classes. Summarization is done so as to reduce bulkiness. Summarisation is done through techniques that give use of numerical descriptive values which come up with measures of central tendency, Deviation
- Data analysis: Data is analysed so as to come up with explanations and conclusions. You derive meanings from the data through analysis and interpretation
- Data presentation: The summarised data is presented using tables, values graphs, charts, diagrams, maps. Qualitative and quantitative measures help to understand the relationship between values.
2.5 Research process is circular
A
point that needs to be stressed here is that research is hardly conclusive.
This is because in exploring one area a researcher comes up with one or several
problems that need resolving.
Research
needs no to be seen as one time act static and an end itself. Genuine research
is dynamic. It creates more problems than it solves. In deed reading through a
number of research report you will notice that researchers point to areas of
further research a suggestion that their studies uncovered many issues that
need to be considered by themselves or other researchers. Such is the nature of the discovery of truth.
In this way therefore research is a circular process.
2.5 Nature of geographic data
What is data? Data is the body of information mostly presented in numerical form (sometimes found in a textual form)
Before
any statistical analysis can take place data must be collected (Raw data
2.5.1 Characteristics
of data:
Data
are precise numerical facts: The information they give is quantitative rather
than qualitative. They can therefore be manipulated statistically, they can be
stored in digital forms e.g. tapes, CD-ROMs etc
Data
is usually collected for a definite purpose. Collection of data must therefore
take time, involve measurements and surveys of various types. The justification
to collect data is to test a theory or hypothesis
2.5 2 Quality of data: The quality of data depends on reliability and
accuracy of a researcher. Care must be taken during data collection. To
maintain the quality of data certain things must be avoided in data collection:
These include: Making mistakes, Subjectivity, biasness. The collection of data
and methods/ techniques must suit the purpose of research. Data should be valid
and reliable. To have good data you need to be objective rather than
subjective.
2.5.3 Types of Geographical data:
Davis
(1974) Insisted that the common feature of geographical data is the fact that
it is spatially distributed over time and space. Geographical data have time
and space.
The
values of geographical data have been related to points, areas and lines. For
instance when dealing with population data, the points can be used to represent
the population density.
2.5.4 Forms of geographical data
Geographical
data can take various forms including:
Altitude:
Heights of landscapes, always presented in Metres. This data can be presented
in form of contours.
Rainfall:
A rain gauge is used to get the amount of rainfall in mm. This data can be
presented in the form of isohyets.
Temperature:
Presented in the form of isolines
Population
statistics: Presented in the form of dots
Traffic
flows: Presented in flow line map forms\
The
aim of collecting all these data is to solve geographical problems
2.5.5 Types of Data:
Geographical
data can be;
2.5.5.1 Individual or grouped data:
Individual
data provides precise and specific values of every item in the sample population.
This data is very informative, thus very difficult to tabulate if the data set
is too large. It is suitable if the population is small.
Grouped
data: This represents the grouped/class values information. The groups are
formed arbitrary e.g. age groups. It is convenient when large numbers are
involved in research
2.5.5.2 Discrete or continuous data:
Discrete
data: Data presented in whole numbers due to their nature e.g. Human beings,
cars, etc
Continuous
data: Presented in the value over a given range, temperature, rainfall, height,
etc. It is the type of data where you can get fractions.
Primary and secondary data:
Primary data: Information acquired directly from the field
Secondary data: The kind of information obtained from other people’s findings
2.6 Why use statistical/ Quantitative methods in Geography?
- They help to facilitate DESCRIPTION: Summarising or converting information into mathematical language enables one to easily understand and interpret the phenomena. It enables easy comparison of results. Enables the understanding of the phenomena. It enables the reduction of massiveness of data. It is good for the manageability of information. Enables the researcher to quantify data by giving numbers to data in a way t
- Statistical methods enable facilitation of induction/ making of inferences. Generally the whole information is very difficult is very difficult to study. Statistical methods make it easier to generalise information about population from the sample. It enables to make inferences about the whole population leading to objective decisions.
- hat data becomes objective and look scientific.
- Statistical methods enable researchers to test the significance of the results. They test the relationships between sample data whether they are significant or a result of chance.
- Statistical methods allow the making of predictions: Predicting what may happen in future. This requires understanding of past events. The past events on the context of geography are spatial. They may be past while existing. With this knowledge prediction of the future is possible
2.7 Problems of geographic data collection
- Limited time: the amount of time available to a researcher determines the research design, the type of data to be collected, analysis strategy, etc
-
- Reliability and accuracy. This mostly concerned with stability and consistency. If not acquired the data collected can not be reliable. Lack of reliability and accuracy leads to biases and invalidity. Highly unreliable measures can not be valid.
- Inability to reach certain populations (inaccessibility). Certain populations may not be accessible e.g. due to remoteness (topography)
-
- Data disaggregation
-
- Introduction of errors
4.0 PURPOSES OF RESEARCH
Research
involves carrying out a diligent inquiry or critical examination of a given
phenomenon such as a critical analysis of existing conclusion or theories visa
vies newly discovered facts.
The
purpose for any research include all or some of the following
- To discover new knowledge ie new ideas or new facts
- To identify and describe new phenomenon
- To make predictions and make estimation of a phenomena
- Offer explanation of a phenomenon based upon described characteristics ( give a critical reasons why something is happening) for example there is a very high drop out rate whyWhy there is low crop production or why road accident or impacts of rainfall variability or what can maintain price of a particular crop in the market.
- Enable theory development or confirmation, validation of existing theories (basic research) or develop new ideas that strengthen a theory.
- Solve a specific problem i.e. in agriculture genetically modified food (GMF)
5.0 TYPES OF RESEARCH
Research
is classified according to
- Data collection
- Analysis
- Purpose
5.1. 1 Classification of research according to purpose
- Applied research
- Basic research
- Action research
- Evaluation research
5.1.2 Classification of research according to data analysis
· Qualitative
research
· Quantitative
research
5.1.3 Classification of research according to data collection methods
· Survey
research
· Historical
research
· Descriptive
research
· Case
study research
· Experimental
research
6.0 How do we identify a specific research problem?
- ·From existing literature ie systematic reading of previous research work and or published books
- ·Existing theories
- ·Opinion/ insights from experts/ peers
- ·Media reports ( things which are frequently reported ie news papers, radios, TV
- ·Personal experience/ practical issue ( the work related experiences ie technological change and experience.
- ·New policy
7.0 Strategies used in social science research
- Survey
- Case study
- Experimental strategy
- Ethnography
7.1 Survey strategy
It
is characterised by one common thing wide and inclusive coverage, Bringing
things up to date. Getting snapshot of how things are at a specific time during
the survey.
7.2 Case study
It
is an in-depth study of a particular situation or event
7.3 Experimental strategy
Manipulation
of circumstances, identifying significant factors, introducing or excluding
some factors from the situation, observing effects (manipulation and control)
7.4 Ethnography
Here
is not an interview to people for little time but one need to spend a lot of
time with people whose culture you want to understand.
Example
why people prefers this? Why they live there and how they passive life.
8.0 Which strategy is most suitable
There
is no one right strategy or correct strategy in doing a research.
There
is no best strategy but the one which can help to solve a problem is the best.
The
strategy should be taken prio for the research so choose the best suited
according to the purpose.
9.0 How do we know that this strategy is good?
There
are a number of criteria to consider and these include
- Relevance
- Feasibility
- Accuracy
- Objectivity
- Coverage
- vEthics
9.1 Relevance
Does
the research you intend to carry out address current issue in a society
- Current – commonly talk about and affect people ie environmental degradation, governance
- (Corruption) the impact of governance on management and sustainable utilization of natural resources (disease environment and poverty)
- Will your research build upon existing knowledge? Is it going to make a contribution on what is being known?
- Are you going to use the existing theory? are specific theory being tested
- Is your research coming with new theory?
9.2 Feasibility
Is
the question about be done? (Can your research be done?)
Criteria
for feasibility
- Time – is there sufficient time for you to do a research, i.e. to collect data, analyse and come up with results. How much time are you locating in design, analyse and writing a report.
- Resources – do you have enough resources to cover your research (i.e. financial resources)
- Accessibility – information can be available but not accessible. The research design should make sure that information is accessible. Ie one is doing a research in rain season when roads are not passable. Or assume the information available is for nationals and not for foreigners.
9.3 Accuracy
Criteria for accuracy
- Will the research you want to carry out provide true and honest findings
- Precise and detailed data ( full and honest answer to questions)
- Do you as a researcher focus on vital issue
9.4 Objectivity
Criteria
for objectivity
- Will the research give you a fair and balanced picture
- Will the research provide an option of free for personal values, believes and background
- Will the researcher maintain an open mind about the findings as well as be able to recognise limitations about the approach taken.
9.5 Coverage
· You
need to question whether the all right things have been included
· All
the questions should cover the issues being investigated ie people and events.
The extent of responses ( the response rate)
9.10 Ethics
- Ethics has to do rights and feelings affected by research that you conduct.
- (Because of money respondents can give or not give or exaggerate the information)
- Avoid deceiving people who are going to give you data use an informed concent ( truth information)
- Avoid misrepresentation
- Protect the identities of people whom you are conducting a research on.
TOPIC 2: GEOGRAPHIC DATA COLLECTION METHODS
10.1 OVERVIEW OF TYPICAL GEOGRAPHIC METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION
Geographers use specialized research methods to study earth features and human activities. These methods include;- Field study: A technique that relies on direct observation as the means of learning about the earth’s surface and the patterns resulting from human activity. Geographers travel to regions to answer specific questions about the area or to learn about unfamiliar geographic relationships.
- Mapping: This is one of the geographers’ most basic activities. Many aspects of geographic research can be shown on maps. Maps present in a simplified form complex pieces of geographic information. They can easily describe the location, characteristics and patterns of geographic elements.
- Interviewing: Observation alone can not answer all geographic questions. At times geographers want to study the attitudes people have towards certain places or how their surroundings is affected by their beliefs and activities. This information can be obtained by interviewing groups of people. Researches often do not interview the entire group, instead they interview a portion of the group scientifically selected to represent the entire population (Sampling).
There are face to face and telephone interviews
Advantages of interviews:
Enable discussion among the researcher and the correspondent
Help to have information on certain groups through telephone interviews
Disadvantages of interviews
Time consuming and costly
Inaccuracy of information due to forgetfulness, shy, or biasness
The researcher may employ research assistants who are not competent.
Lack standards during evaluation.
- Focus groups: Acquiring information from a group of 10–20 people. It helps them to understand and voice some of the geographic problems they face. A group should be representative of the whole population. A focus group enables people with different views to discuss their differences, challenge assumptions and come to a collective understanding of the geographic problems. This method gives give a very brief precise and specific information about the problem. They create new knowledge which was not obtained through other methods.
- Quantitative methods: With the aid of the computer geographers often test their research by using quantitative (mathematical and statistical) methods. These methods help to simplify complex information and to present it in a form that is more easily understood. They also help geographers find the patterns in geographic elements and determine which factors affecting a particular element are the most important.
- The use of scientific instruments: This is very crucial to geographic research. Geographers use remote sensing devices to identify and study hard to reach or very large physical features. Such devices are instruments that observe and record information from a distance. These devices include aerial and satellite cameras, infrared (heat sensitive) films, and radar. These devices record information about weather systems, patterns of vegetation growth, the existence of pollution, etc. Some instruments measure environmental characteristics such as weather gauges, which measure and record temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction and air pressure.
10.2 FIELDWORK IN GEOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
Geography
is a field study subject, concerned with accurate observation, recording and
interpretation of the variable nature of the human and physical landscapes.
The
geographers’ laboratory is in the field, the local environment.
Types
of field work:
- Field excursion (Field trip): Refers to the trip round the locality or further a field in order to visit places of geographical interest. Students (researchers) observe, listen to lectures by experts (resource persons). Although it is difficult to structure it has the advantage of bringing students into reality of the environment. They are given the opportunity to identify problems of development for later class discussion.
- Field study: Refers to the practice whereby students are taken to permanent field centres or laboratories, chosen and maintained by geography departments, for purpose of studying geographic patterns and processes. Students may closely examine and analyse a piece of landscape to understand spatial variations. It involves intensive investigation.
- Field research: Refers to fieldwork organized in the context of problem solving approach. A problem of study is stated. A hypothesis put forward for testing; data collection; analysis; hypothesis testing, Conclusion.
10.3 Historical background of Fieldwork in Geography
Change has been present throughout the long development of geography.
Change has been present throughout the long development of geography.
v There have been a number of
different phases or trends in the discipline.
v Throughout all this change over the centuries,
however, a few things have remained constant.
v the subject matter of geography
hasn't really changed
Since
the time of the ancient Greeks, geographers have been concerned with the
Earth's surface as the home of mankind
Something
else that has not changed is the fact that geography has always been a
discipline of observation
v Observation is simply the most basic
way of understanding the fundamental components of geography
-geographers
have been observers for centuries
-Homer
and other Greeks who observed their surroundings and wrote about them are today
recognized as geographers as much as they are by other disciplines
v Fieldwork
has evolved from its traditional, observational-based origins to a diversity of
learning and teaching processes that, since the 1960s and 1970s, have been
characterised by increased orientation around study of geographical processes (cf
observation of form) and research
and problem-solving approaches. Such approaches have necessarily demanded
development of subject-specific technical skills, but also the opportunities
provided by fieldwork for developing transferable skills (for example teamwork,
leadership) and student employability were recognised in the 1980s when such
skills became explicit learning objectives of fieldwork (Kent et al,
1997).
v Observation has formally been
incorporated into geography through fieldwork.
v fieldwork is nothing more than
systematic observation by a geographer of his or her subject matter
v anyone can do fieldwork, and every
good geographer does
virtually anyone can do it because
fieldwork is, at its most fundamental, just going out and looking at the land
-all the
training you need is knowing what to look for
-knowing
what to look for involves training in your respective area
-physical
geographers, for example, need to understand geomorphology before going out to
research the erosion pattern of a slope
-economic
geographers need to understand land use types before going out to chart
economic patterns in American cities
10.4 The importance of Field Work to Geography
Fieldwork
is important to geography because it contributes so fundamentally to
geographical research and to our basic understanding of the Earth's surface.
· To understand history in its fullest
sense, one cannot just read books about past events or what are commonly
called secondary sources
· To understand geography or do
geographic research, one must consult primary sourcesin this respect,
geographers certainly make use of some of the same primary sources as
researchers in other fields do
· Geographers doing research spend
much time in the archives looking at original documents like census manuscripts
· Geography, however, has another
primary source that is quite different from those used in other fields; this,
of course, is the landscape
· The landscape is the primary source
of the geographer, whether he or she is a physical, cultural, or economic
geographer
-it
can be rural or urban
-it
contains all of the essential facts of geography and, many would say, the means
of explaining those facts
10.5 For Field Work to be Precise and Valid a Geographer has to:
1. Be
curious and observant
-you must want
to do fieldwork, and you must keep your eyes open
2. Take
clear, organized notes
-fieldwork is
just sightseeing unless you can use the information later
3. Pay
careful attention to your location, making good use of maps
-no matter how
detailed your observations are, they are of little value in geography if you
cannot link them to a location
-this is where
maps come in handy in the field
-making
notes about a site at its location on a good map lends precision to your
fieldwork
-increasingly,
you can note your location accurately by using GPS
-Global
Positioning System receivers are lightweight and portable
-they
are also becoming quite accurate
-better
models can even record and store data for sample locations; you can later
download that data directly into a GIS
4. Be
consistent: fieldwork is literally data collection, whether it is soil
or plant types or religious patterns, so consistency is important for accurate
results
The value of
good fieldwork will not usually be seen in the field, but will instead show up
later . . . when you analyze
your field observations.
o remember,
fieldwork is data collection
o your
observations are thus raw data
o if
you have observed things systematically and recorded these observations
consistently, your analysis of the data will go smoothly
o you
will also be able to do something with your data
-most
basic is mapping similar observations
-then,
interpret and explain the pattern
-finally,
compare the pattern to other patterns
Approaches to
Field Work
Historically,
two views have tended to dominate fieldwork, at least in American geography
(Deductive and Inductive Methods).
Deductive Method
o one
of these was common at the University of Chicago
-in
this view, geographers studied a particular problem in depth and then
went into the field to look for answers to the problem
-this
involved the deductive method
-this
method can obviously work, but it is very easy to go into the field and simply
look until you find what you are looking for
Inductive Method
o another
view was held by Carl Sauer at the University of California, Berkeley
-Sauer
was probably the strongest advocate of fieldwork in American geography
-he
made all of his students to fieldwork, mainly in Mexico and South
America
-he
himself conducted fieldwork almost every year of his professional life
-he
reputedly once said that any mode of transportation faster than a mule was too
fast for fieldwork, and he preferred walking
-Sauer's
fieldwork philosophy was just the opposite of the Chicago view
-Sauer
felt geographers should identify vague topics
-they
should then conduct thorough, unbiased fieldwork and simply see what problems
and answers the landscape yielded
-this
involved the inductive method
-more
sound logically and scientifically, in many ways
-the
upshot if this was that Sauer send his students into the field with little more
than a notebook
-students
were not told how to do fieldwork, for everyone does it differently
-they
were certainly not told what to look for
-it
was really on the job training
-they
include step-by-step instructions on a wide range of techniques and skills
-they
also include a series of exercises on each of the major topics related to
fieldwork
-there
is also a superb reading list attached to this site
11. SAMPLING
It
is not possible to observe the all population, so we observe the sub set of
population which is called sample.
One
major characteristics of population is that thjey are never homogeneous.
Population is always heterogeneous. And therefore the value of attributes of
which we want to collect information from is also heterogeneous. So we get a
representative sample to make inferences about a population. And this inference
influences the decision making processes. Example what Tanzanians regional
division should be based on?
11.1 SAMPLING TECHNIQUE
There
are two major sampling techniques these are
· probability
sampling
· non
probability sampling
A.
PROBABILITY
SAMPLING
1.
RANDOM
SAMPLING
- Simple random sampling
- Stratified random sampling
- Systematic sampling
- Mult stage sampling
B.
NON
RANDOM SAMPLING
i.
Cluster sampling
ii.
Judgemental sampling
iii.
Accessibility sampling
iv.
Quarter sampling
v.
C.
11.2 SAMPLE SIZE
Perhaps
the most frequently asked question concerning sampling is, "What size
sample do I need?" The answer to this question is influenced by a number
of factors, including the purpose of the study, population size, the risk of
selecting a "bad" sample, and the allowable sampling error.
This
paper reviews criteria for specifying a sample size and presents several
strategies for determining the sample size.
11.3 SAMPLE SIZE CRITERIA
In
addition to the purpose of the study and population size, three criteria
usually will need to be specified to determine the appropriate sample size: the
level of precision, the level of confidence or risk, and the degree of
variability in the attributes being measured (Miaoulis and Michener, 1976).
Each of these is reviewed below.
The
Level of Precision
The
level of precision, sometimes called sampling error, is the range
in which the true value of the population is estimated to be. This range
is often expressed in percentage points, (e.g., ±5 percent), in the
same way that results for political campaign polls are reported by the
media. Thus, if a researcher finds that 60% of farmers in the sample
have adopted a recommended practice with a precision rate of ±5%, then
he or she can conclude that between 55% and 65% of farmers in the
population have adopted the practice.
The
Confidence Level
The
confidence or risk level is based on ideas encompassed under the
Central Limit Theorem. The key idea encompassed in the Central Limit Theorem is
that when a population is repeatedly sampled, the average value of the
attribute obtained by those samples is equal to the true population value.
Furthermore, the values obtained by these samples are distributed normally
about the true value, with some samples having a higher value and some
obtaining a lower score than the true population value. In a normal
distribution, approximately 95% of the sample values are within two standard
deviations of the true population value (e.g., mean). In other words, this
means that, if a 95% confidence level is selected, 95 out of 100 samples will
have the true population value within the range of precision specified earlier
(Figure 1). There is always a chance that the sample you obtain does not
represent the true population value. Such samples with extreme values are
represented by the shaded areas in Figure 1. This risk is reduced for 99%
confidence levels and increased for 90% (or lower) confidence levels.
Degree
of Variability
The
third criterion, the degree of variability in the attributes being measured
refers to the distribution of attributes in the population. The more
heterogeneous a population, the larger the sample size required to obtain a
given level of precision. The less variable (more homogeneous) a population,
the smaller the sample size. Note that a proportion of 50% indicates a greater
level of variability than either 20% or 80%. This is because 20% and 80%
indicate that a large majority do not or do, respectively, have the attribute
of interest. Because a proportion of .5 indicates the maximum variability in a
population, it is often used in determining a more conservative sample size,
that is, the sample size may be larger than if the true variability of the
population attribute were used.
11.4 STRATEGIES FOR DETERMINING SAMPLE SIZE
There
are several approaches to determining the sample size. These include using a
census for small populations, imitating a sample size of similar studies, using
published tables, and applying formulas to calculate a sample size. Each
strategy is discussed below.
- Using a Census for Small Populations
One
approach is to use the entire population as the sample. Although cost
considerations make this impossible for large populations, a census is
attractive for small populations (e.g., 200 or less). A census eliminates
sampling error and provides data on all the individuals in the population. In
addition, some costs such as questionnaire design and developing the sampling
frame are "fixed," that is, they will be the same for samples of 50
or 200. Finally, virtually the entire population would have to be sampled in
small populations to achieve a desirable level of precision.
Using
a Sample Size of a Similar Study
Another
approach is to use the same sample size as those of studies similar to the one
you plan. Without reviewing the procedures employed in these studies you may
run the risk of repeating errors that were made in determining the sample size
for another study. However, a review of the literature in your discipline can
provide guidance about "typical" sample sizes which are used.
Using
Published Tables
A
third way to determine sample size is to rely on published tables which provide
the sample size for a given set of criteria. Table 1 and Table 2 present sample
sizes that would be necessary for given combinations of precision, confidence
levels, and variability. Please note two things. First, these sample sizes
reflect the number of obtained responses, and not necessarily the number
of surveys mailed or interviews planned (this number is often increased to compensate
for nonresponse). Second, the sample sizes in Table 2 presume that the
attributes being measured are distributed normally or nearly so. If this
assumption cannot be met, then the entire population may need to be surveyed.
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